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blog: Don Marti

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the other dude

22 July 2017

Making the rounds, this is a fun one: A computer was asked to predict which start-ups would be successful. The results were astonishing.

  • 2014: When there's no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle. So the magic there is, you basically bring the cost below the cost of ownership for everybody, and then car ownership goes away.

  • 2018 (?): When there's no other dude in the fund, the cost of financing innovation anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a portfolio of public company stock. So the magic there is, you basically bring the transaction costs of venture capital below the cost of public company ownership for everybody, and then public companies go away.

Could be a thing for software/service companies faster than we might think. Futures contracts on bugs→equity crowdfunding and pre-sales of tokens→bot-managed follow-on fund for large investors.