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blog: Don Marti

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Can markets for intent data even be a thing?

12 May 2018

Doc Searls is optimistic that surveillance marketing is going away, but what's going to replace it? One idea that keeps coming up is the suggestion that prospective buyers should be able to sell purchase intent data to vendors directly. This seems to be appealing because it means that the Marketing department will still get to have Big Data and stuff, but I'm still trying to figure out how voluntary transactions in intent data could even be a thing.

Here's an example. It's the week before Thanksgiving, and I'm shopping for a kitchen stove. Here are two possible pieces of intent information that I could sell.

  • "I'm cutting through the store on the way to buy something else. If a stove is on sale, I might buy it, but only if it's a bargain, because who needs the hassle of handling a stove delivery the week before Thanksgiving?"

  • "My old stove is shot, and I need one right away because I have already invited people over. Shut up and take my money."

On a future intent trading platform, what's my incentive to reveal which intent is the true one?

If I'm a bargain hunter, I'm willing to sell my intent information, because it would tend to get me a lower price. But in that case, why would any store want to buy the information?

If I need the product now, I would only sell the information for a price higher than the expected difference between the price I would pay and the price a bargain hunter would pay. But if the information isn't worth more than the price difference, why would the store want to buy it?

So how can a market for purchase intent data happen?

Or is the idea of selling access to purchase intent only feasible if the intent data is taken from the "data subject" without permission?

Anyway, I can see how search advertising and signal-based advertising can assume a more important role as surveillance marketing becomes less important, but I'm not sure about markets for purchase intent. Maybe user data sharing will be not so much a stand-alone thing but a role for trustworthy news and cultural sites, as people choose to share data as part of commenting and survey completion, and that data, in aggregated form, becomes part of a site's audience profile.