(Update 17 Nov 2024: add links to EU and
California laws that will affect Big AI firms)
(Update 30 Aug 2023 and after: add links to Related
section)
(Update 14 May 2023: add meme and attention span
paragraph.)
Read the whole thing: “We
Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI”. To me, it looks more
interesting than that. Big companies have sustainable anti-moats in
generative AI. Independent and underground operations can do generative
AI in ways that a big company can’t.
give a programmer in the USA some code to bypass a DRM
system
insult the monarch of Thailand
give a user in Germany an article that denies a historic
genocide
A Big Tech company doesn’t know which users are going to report them
for which crimes, so they have to try to keep everything compliant, or
compliant-looking, for all users worldwide. An independent operation
only has to comply with the law in their own jurisdiction. (Personally,
I would not run any generative AI service, at any scale, in a country
where the blasphemy law carries the death penalty, but that’s just me.)
Meanwhile, if you’re running underground generative AI in the USA, you
can probably get away with breaking a bunch of laws. Section
230 is your friend. Copy a trick from ad-supported pirate
sites, which use a different immunity law (DMCA) to keep themselves
out of trouble. Post the generative AI content from regular user
accounts, and if anyone complains, play either the Section 230 card or
the DMCA card and blame it on a user. (This is one of the ways YouTube
got
videos for their site when they were getting started. Jawed,
please stop putting stolen videos on the site. We’re going to have a
tough time defending the fact that we’re not liable for the copyrighted
material on the site because we didn’t put it up when one of the
co-founders is blatantly stealing content from other sites and trying to
get everyone to see it.)
Second, training sets. Big companies keep records on how they use
copyrighted works, and underground operators have ever-bigger hard
drives full of material that they, or their friends, have been
collecting since the 1990s. A
new California AI Law Mandates Disclosure of GenAI Training Data.
After big companies have to clean up their training sets under the harsh
glare of legal threats, underground AI projects can still
just torrent a big pile of copyrighted books, or use various tricks
to grab content from sites that have an AI Opt-Out.
Copyright cases will affect Big Tech but not underground AI, which can
use the same tricks for getting away with infringement that the regular
ad-supported pirate sites already do.
Underground AI can also get training data from unsuspecting, unpaid
users, like GPT-4chan did.
Gamers and forum users are training underground AI right now by
interacting with bots that collect and respond to their activity. And
how do you tell if the operator of the forum or game server is running
the bots? Or are bots training on services offered by others? Or is the
forum or game using the Section 230, we’re shocked to discover what
one of our users was doing, trick?
Meme version of this blog
post
Big Tech companies are law-abiding enough that they have to invest
heavily in filters on generative AI—but they do enough crimes that they
have to collaborate with the expectation that their email, commit
messages and chat will eventually become public (there is corporate
training about how to email about crimes and have it covered by
attorney-client privilege but it turns out not to work as well as
they thought it would.) Big Tech AI projects are being watched by
regulators, competitors, employees who are going to be working for a
competitor next week, wannabe whistleblowers, independent
researchers…and soon will have to open up a bunch of records to
plaintiffs’ lawyers. That’s a combination that will lead to chilling
effects on internal communcations that underground AI operations don’t
have. (Yes, individual underground AI rings will get busted, but they’re
compartmentalized.)
And I almost forgot: the rent extraction and short attention span
problems. Building a service on a Big Tech API is like opening a
restaurant in a building owned by a San Francisco landlord: if you fail,
you fail. If you succeed, they raise the rent on you. And, unlike
commercial real estate leases, if you build on a Big Tech API, the
landlord can kick you out at any time just because they get
bored. Or, more likely, because the product manager nailed their OKRs,
got promoted, and now the service is in the hands of someone who knows
that you can’t buy a house in Mountain View, California just by keeping
an existing service from crashing. Steve
Yegge explains it best.
Generative AI frenzy was rushed out in response to the 2022 Big Tech
union organizing wins, like fast
food robots were demoed before they were ready in response to “Fight for
$15” a decade ago. But somehow it doesn’t seem that they thought it
through very well. That’s probably a cultural problem, just because the
instinct to do union-busting regardless of longer-term consequences is
selected for so heavily. Anyway, AI is not going to be an advantage for
the big incumbent companies that are still in the awkward halfway
crook space.
The
Perfect Storm for Local AI Has Arrived by Rodney Waterman. The
threshold at which owning hardware beats renting it is arriving faster
than it used to. For sustained, high-utilization workloads, the time
required to reach cost parity with cloud has compressed from around 15
months down to under four months….The quality story has changed too,
drastically. Open-source models now handle 85 to 90 percent of
enterprise AI use cases at levels indistinguishable from cloud APIs for
most business applications.
How
to roll your own local AI coding agents • The Register by Tobias
Mann and Thomas Claburn. This isn’t the first time we’ve looked at
local code assistants. Previously we explored using Continue’s VS Code
extension for tasks such as code completion and generation. At the time,
the models and software stack were quite immature, making them useful
tools, but not necessarily good enough to compete with larger frontier
models. Since then, model architectures and agent harnesses have
improved dramatically.
Hype, Sustainability, and
the Price of the Bigger-is-Better Paradigm in AIThe problem with
the bigger-is-better approach is not simply that it is inaccessible. It
also does not consistently produce the best models, and, after a given
point, even shows diminishing returns. On many tasks, benchmark
performance as a function of scale tends to saturate after a certain
point (see Figure 2). In addition, there is as much variability in model
performance between models within a similar size class as there is
between models of different sizes.
Everything I’ve
learned so far about running local LLMsI’m wary of vendor
lock-in, having experienced the rug pulled out from under me by services
shutting down, changing, or otherwise dropping my use case. I want the
option to continue, even if it means changing providers. So for a couple
of years I’d ignored LLMs. The “closed” models, accessibly only as a
service, have the classic lock-in problem, including silent degradation.
That changed when I learned I can run models close to the
state-of-the-art on my own hardware—the exact opposite of vendor
lock-in.
Ask HN: Is it
just me or GPT-4′s quality has significantly deteriorated lately?I saw the nerfing of GPT in real time: one day it was giving me great
book summaries, the next one it said that it couldn’t do it due to
copyright. I actually called it in a comment several months ago:
copyright and other forms of control would make GPT dumb in the long
run. We need an open source frontier less version.
It’s
infuriatingly hard to understand how closed models train on their
inputThese models aren’t yet anywhere near as capable as GPT-4,
and claims that they compete with ChatGPT’s gpt-3.5-turbo mostly don’t
hold up to deeper scrutiny. But… they’re pretty good—and they’re getting
better at an impressive rate. And since you can run them on your own
instances, they remove all possible concerns about what happens to the
data that you pipe through them.
Will
Open Source AI Shift Power from ‘Big Tech’? It Depends.The arc
of open source development in software has taught us this much: the
existence of open alternatives helps shape and constrain the power of
market players, but doesn’t necessarily dictate a more diverse,
competitive market structure.
Model
alignment protects against accidental harms, not intentional onesEven if there is draconian regulation to prohibit the release of new
open models, and global cooperation to enforce such regulations, the
open models that have already been released are more than sufficient for
harmful applications like disinformation and scams.
Phi-2:
The surprising power of small language models - Microsoft ResearchWe are now releasing Phi-2, a 2.7 billion-parameter language model
that demonstrates outstanding reasoning and language understanding
capabilities, showcasing state-of-the-art performance among base
language models with less than 13 billion parameters. On complex
benchmarks Phi-2 matches or outperforms models up to 25x larger, thanks
to new innovations in model scaling and training data curation.
Founder
of Neo-Nazi Group the Base Instructs Followers to Use ‘Uncensored’
AIThe news shows how AI models and AI internet platforms with
less restrictions compared to market leaders like OpenAI are making it
increasingly easier for anyone to generate any kind of content, and that
leaders of extremist movements have considered how it might be useful
for them.
Microsoft
Deleted Its LLM Because It Didn’t Get a Safety Test, But Now It’s
EverywhereLast week, Microsoft researchers released WizardLM 2,
which it claimed is one of the most powerful open source large language
models to date. Then it deleted the model from the internet a few hours
later because, as The Information reported, it “accidentally missed”
required “toxicity testing” before it was released.
Why
I Use Open Weights LLMs Locally and 50+
Open-Source Options for Running LLMs Locally by Vince Lam You’ve
likely noticed that proprietary models are highly censored, limited, and
biased due to alignment — to reduce harmful and toxic responses….Now
this is not an inherently bad, but sometimes the LLM may refuse to
fulfil a task even if it seems reasonable, or it may simply not infer on
certain topics. and By using mostly free models and occasionally
switching to GPT-4, my monthly expenses dropped from 20 USD to 0.50
USD.
Forget
ChatGPT: why researchers now run small AIs on their laptopsFirst, organizations are making open weights versions of LLMs,
in which the weights and biases used to train a model are publicly
available, so that users can download and run them locally, if they have
the computing power. Second, technology firms are making scaled-down
versions that can be run on consumer hardware — and that rival the
performance of older, larger models. Researchers might use such tools to
save money, protect the confidentiality of patients or corporations, or
ensure reproducibility.
Chinese
AI startup DeepSeek unveils open-source model to rival OpenAI o1 –
ComputerworldWith its MIT license and ultra-low costs, DeepSeek
could be an appealing and cost-effective option for enterprise adoption.
Chinese AI developer DeepSeek has unveiled an open-source version of its
reasoning model, DeepSeek-R1, featuring 671 billion parameters and
claiming performance superior to OpenAI’s o1 on key benchmarks.
Copyright
reform is necessary for national security - Anna’s BlogVirtually
all major companies building LLMs contacted us to train on our data.
Most (but not all!) US-based companies reconsidered once they realized
the illegal nature of our work. By contrast, Chinese firms have
enthusiastically embraced our collection, apparently untroubled by its
legality….We have given high-speed access to about 30 companies. Most of
them are LLM companies, and some are data brokers, who will resell our
collection. Most are Chinese, though we’ve also worked with companies
from the US, Europe, Russia, South Korea, and Japan.
Ollama - NSHipsterOllama is the easiest way to run large language models on your Mac.
You can think of it as “Docker for LLMs” - a way to pull, run, and
manage AI models as easily as containers.
The
DeepSeek Effect: Some Large Cloud Customers Slow Down AI Spending as
Prices Drop — The InformationThomson Reuters released
conversational AI in its tax and legal software products in late 2023 to
help customers draft legal documents and answer questions about tax
laws. But its overall spending on AI from cloud providers like Microsoft
and Google has been roughly flat since then, thanks to the
falling price of the models powering the features, which include those
made by Meta Platforms, Google and DeepSeek, according to Chief
Technology Officer Joel Hron. If anything, the gap has shrunk between
the open-source models and what OpenAI or Anthropic are able to do,
Hron said. And with that, there’s been a precipitous drop in
cost.
More
of Silicon Valley is building on free Chinese AI by Jasmine Cui and
Jared Perlo. NBC News spoke to over 15 AI startup founders,
machine-learning engineers, industry experts and investors, who said
that while models from American companies continue to set the pace of
progress at the frontier of AI capabilities, many Chinese systems are
cheaper to access, more customizable and have become sufficiently
capable for many uses over the past year.